DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (April 20th—> April 25th)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors!
This week, markets rode another wave of volatility as initial signs of easing trade tensions quickly gave way to renewed concerns around Fed independence, tariff fallout, and emerging stagflation risks. While Monday brought a sigh of relief, Powell’s sharp warning midweek rattled risk assets—and reignited questions about the Fed's path forward.
Let’s unpack what moved the markets. 👇
🌐 Market Overview: Hope, Hiccups, and Hawkish Talk
Markets kicked off the week in rally mode after the Trump Administration announced temporary tariff exemptions for key electronics tied to semiconductor production. Stocks, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries climbed in tandem, while the VIX dipped as trade rhetoric cooled.
Optimism grew as talks with Japan began in D.C., with the Administration hinting that a formal trade deal could be near.
The calm allowed the first high-yield corporate bond sale in two weeks to go through—signaling improved liquidity sentiment.
That optimism was short-lived.
On Wednesday, Nvidia dropped a bomb, revealing that new China export controls would force a $5B inventory write-down, dragging down the Nasdaq.
Markets were further rattled when Fed Chair Powell warned of long-term risks from tariffs and made clear the Fed wouldn't intervene without clear liquidity stress.
President Trump pushed back hard, renewing demands for immediate rate cuts and reportedly considered firing Powell, though advisors dissuaded him for now. Tensions over Fed independence once again added to the list of market risks.
📉 Weekly Market Performance:
S&P 500: -1.6%
Dow Jones: -2.7%
Nasdaq: -2.6%
📊 Key Economic Developments
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Warned of potential “difficult decisions” if tariffs persist, while pushing back on the idea of emergency support.
ECB Rate Cut: The European Central Bank cut rates again, widening the policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey: Showed significant weakness, underscoring fragile business confidence.
Treasury Yields: Rebounded as Trump reignited uncertainty around Fed independence and policy credibility.
💼 Corporate Earnings & Sector Highlights
As Q1 earnings season ramps up, companies across industries are grappling with tariff-induced uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior.
🏦 Financials:
Goldman Sachs ($GS): Beat estimates, but warned recession risk is rising.
Bank of America ($BAC): Topped forecasts, cited continued consumer strength.
✈️ Travel & Transport:
United Airlines ($UAL): Reported strong Q1, but shared a “recession scenario” for FY25 if trade pressures escalate.
JB Hunt ($JBHT): Beat expectations but cut capex plans due to tariff-driven customer caution.
🛻 Autos & Industrials:
Ford ($F): Warned dealers of potential price hikes on new vehicles as early as May due to supply chain cost pressures.
Boeing ($BA): In focus ahead of next week’s earnings amid questions about defense and export exposure.
🏥 Healthcare:
UnitedHealth Group ($UNH): Dragged down the DJIA after a brutal Q1, citing rising care activity and Medicare Advantage cost pressures.
Elevance ($ELV): Affirmed guidance, but acknowledged that Medicare cost trends remain elevated.
Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ): Delivered strong results and raised guidance, brushing off looming pharmaceutical tariffs.
🔮 Looking Ahead: What We’re Watching
As markets attempt to digest Powell’s message and Trump’s tariff strategy, next week brings a wave of major earnings and key housing data.
🧨 U.S.-China Trade War: Will tensions escalate further—or does a “deal” emerge from the chaos?
🏘️ U.S. Housing Data: Key barometer for rate sensitivity and consumer resilience.
🎙️ Fed Speakers: More Fedspeak incoming as policymakers walk a fine line.
💼 Earnings Watch:
Tech: Tesla ($TSLA), Google ($GOOGL), Intel ($INTC), IBM ($IBM)
Industrials & Airlines: Boeing ($BA), General Electric ($GE), American Airlines ($AAL)
Telecom & Staples: Verizon ($VZ), AT&T ($T), PepsiCo ($PEP)
📌 Don’t Let Volatility Knock You Off Course
Markets are at a major inflection point. Whether it's the Fed’s next move, tariff twists, or corporate recalibrations, we’re tracking it all in real time.
📲 Visit our Trading Corner for earnings breakdowns, macro event guidance, and portfolio strategy tips.
This Week’s Question:
Do you believe Powell will hold his ground—or will market pressure force the Fed to cut sooner than expected?
Reply to this email or join the discussion on Discord. We want to hear your take.
If this helped you cut through the noise, forward it to a fellow investor. Let’s grow smarter together. 💼📉📈
📌 Keep Your Head on a Swivel
We’re not out of the woods yet. The short-term relief rally doesn’t mean long-term clarity. Head over to our Trading Corner for updated strategy sessions and actionable insights during this volatile environment.
Question of the Week:
Do you think Trump’s tariff pause is a smart negotiating move—or just kicking the can down the road?
Reply to this email or drop your thoughts in Discord—we love hearing from you.
And if this recap helped you stay grounded this week, forward it to a fellow investor. We’re stronger together. 💪📉📈
📝 From the Editor
Earnings season kicked off strong with solid beats from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Netflix (NFLX), but the rally was short-lived.
The tariff war with China continues to escalate, and Nvidia (NVDA) took a major hit with a big charge, dragging markets lower. The Fed’s latest meeting offered little relief—they’re in wait-and-see mode but made it clear that tariffs pose a real risk to the economy.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 4/20/2025)
SPX - GS and NFLX started the earning season strong showing better than expected ER. However, The tariff war with china hasn't gotten any better. NVDA got hit with a big charge and dragged the market down last week, Fed also had a meeting and said they couldn't do much until more data comes in but they agree that the tariff war would be bad for the economy.
Next resistance: $5,460 and $5,630
Next support: $4850, and $4669
Weekly Sentiment: Bearish
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - ECB just dropped their rates so we could see some relief in the dollar. If economic data comes in weak this week, we can see the dollar hold the current zone, but if it breaks down, we can drop to low 90s and see a possible run in gold.
Next resistance: $99.60
Next support: $97.40
Weekly Sentiment: Oversold
Put to call Ratio: 2.01—> 1.32
Next FOMC date: 05/07/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 04—>13 (Under 25 is extreme fear)
BTC: Crypto market held the support so far and is pushing toward resistance at 87.5k. This could be a great area to short if it rejects.
Next Major Resistance: 87.5k and 91.5k
Next Support: 75k and 55k.
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 4/20/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: AORT, BPOP, PLXS, TOWN, TTMI, VCEL, WAT, ALC, AMAL, ARCC, ARES, ARMK, ATEN, ATI, ATR, BDC, BYD, CEG, CPAY, CPF, CWAN, DY, FHI, FLEX, FSS
X20: AAON, ABBV, ABCB, ACLX, ADSK, AORT, BAP, BPOP, BX, CINF, CMG, CMI, CPAY, ENB, EPD, ET, EXP, EXPE, FTI, FUTU, GOOG, GOOGL, HESM, ITGR, KYN, LPX, MCO, MS, OKE, PAR, PHM, PWP, RGA, RRC, SEIC, SLF, SN, SPGI, TSM, TTMI, UBS, UTHR, VNOM, WTFC, TGT
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is a major American retail chain offering a wide range of products including apparel, home goods, groceries, and electronics. Headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Target operates over 1,900 stores across the U.S. and has a strong eCommerce presence. The company is known for its affordable style, curated brand partnerships, and focus on a convenient, guest-centric shopping experience.
Buy: $81.50
Sell: $86.50
Stoploss: $76.50
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (NASDAQ: AUR) is a U.S.-based autonomous vehicle technology company focused on developing self-driving solutions for freight and passenger transport. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Aurora’s flagship product is the Aurora Driver, a platform designed to operate a range of vehicle types, including trucks and passenger cars. The company partners with major logistics and automotive companies to bring scalable autonomous technology to market.
Buy: $4.50
Sell: $5.00
Stoploss: $4.00
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is a global tobacco and nicotine company best known for its Marlboro brand outside the U.S. Headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, the company is focused on transitioning to a smoke-free future through its reduced-risk products like IQOS, a heated tobacco system. Philip Morris operates in over 180 markets and is investing heavily in science and innovation to develop alternatives to traditional cigarettes.
Buy: $162.00
Sell: $167.00
Stoploss: $157.00
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.