DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (May 25th—> May 30th)
Stock Market Outlooks, Earning Calendars, WallStreetBets, Economic Calendar, Stock Market Recap, $SPX, Crypto, BTC, DIY Investing
👋 Hello DIY Investors!
Markets hit a wall this week as investor optimism met a wave of fresh macro headwinds. While the S&P and Nasdaq came in riding a six-day winning streak, that momentum stalled under the weight of rising yields, renewed tariff threats, and a Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. Despite some bright spots in corporate news and capital markets activity, the broader tone was defensive as macro uncertainty reasserted itself.
Let’s unpack what rattled the bulls—and what to watch next week.
🌍 Market Overview: Moody’s Downgrade, Rates Spike, Tariff Rhetoric Returns
Markets got a gut check right out of the gate as Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating late last Friday. While not unexpected, it highlighted growing concern over America’s long-term fiscal health. Yields surged, the dollar slumped, and risk appetite cooled.
📈 Key Pressure Points This Week:
U.S. Treasury yields spiked, with the 30-year nearing 2007 levels and the 10-year climbing back above 4.5%.
A poor 20-year bond auction and rising global yields (especially in the UK and Japan) added fuel to the fire.
The House GOP finalized Trump’s $4T “One Big Beautiful Bill”, including SALT cap relief and avoiding Medicaid cuts—now headed to the Senate.
📉 Friday’s Curveball:
President Trump threatened new tariffs—a 50% levy on EU imports and 25% on iPhones not made in the U.S.. The VIX briefly surged above 25, but both stocks and yields stabilized into the close as investors faded the outburst as more negotiation bluster via Truth Social.
📊 Weekly Market Performance:
S&P 500: -2.6%
Nasdaq: -2.5%
Dow Jones: -2.5%
📊 Macro & Economic Highlights:
🏛️ Moody’s Downgrade: Renewed focus on U.S. fiscal sustainability
💸 Yield Surge: Long-end U.S. Treasury yields climbed; curve steepened
📉 Dollar Weakness: Greenback dropped to 3-month lows
🛢️ Oil Mixed: Rose early on Iran concerns, but capped by OPEC+ supply chatter
💱 Gold/BTC Rally: De-dollarization narrative reignited as gold rebounded and Bitcoin hit new all-time highs
💼 Corporate Highlights:
📦 Retail Sector: Mixed Bag
Home Depot ($HD): Missed Q3 EPS, but noted strong April-May trends
Target ($TGT): Disappointed again
Lowe’s ($LOW): Underwhelming vs. HD
TJX ($TJX): Beat again, remaining a standout in a shaky retail landscape
Deckers ($DECK), Ross ($ROST): Highlighted ongoing pressure in specialty retail
🤖 Tech & Innovation
Google ($GOOGL): Gemini app hit 400M MAUs; I/O Conference showcased major AI advances
Apple ($AAPL): Traded lower on iPhone tariff threat; rumors swirled around ex-designer Jony Ive’s $6.5B OpenAI deal to build a post-iPhone AI device
🏗️ Aerospace & Industrials
Boeing ($BA): Announced progress on ramping 737 production and nearing DOJ resolution on 737 Max crashes
🛍️ M&A & Capital Markets
Skechers/3G Capital, Charter/Cox, and now Dick’s/Foot Locker reflect resurgent deal appetite
CoreWeave ($CRWV): Shares surged after a $2B convertible debt sale
IPOs HNGE and MNTN were well-received, signaling renewed investor interest in new listings
🔮 Looking Ahead: May 26–30
🗓️ Weekly Watchlist:
**Monday (5/27):**🇺🇸 Memorial Day – U.S. Markets Closed
**Tuesday (5/28):**📊 Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence 💼 Earnings: $PDD, $OKTA, $AZO
**Wednesday (5/29):**📄 FOMC Minutes 💼 Earnings: $NVDA, $CRM, $DKS, $ANF, $M
**Thursday (5/30):**📈 Q1 GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales 💼 Earnings: $COST, $DELL, $BBY, $FL, $KSS, $BURL, $ULTA
Friday (5/31): 📊 PCE Inflation, Consumer Sentiment
📣 Investor Takeaway
Despite a strong stretch into May, sentiment soured fast as rate volatility, tariff threats, and fiscal stress resurfaced. With de-dollarization chatter rising, yields creeping higher, and tariff tensions reigniting, investors may need to brace for more chop ahead.
🧭 Stay nimble, and watch upcoming inflation and Fed minutes closely for signs of a policy shift—or a market overreaction.
🗳️ Poll of the Week:
With Apple & EU tariffs on the table, are tech stocks still the right leadership group—or is rotation into defensives coming?
Reply or vote in Discord. Your insight helps shape our next trade radar! 🎯
See you after the Memorial Day break. 🇺🇸 Enjoy the long weekend!
Stay curious, stay sharp, and as always—happy investing. 💼📈
📝 From the Editor
SPX pulled back to reset RSI and landed right at our $5,770 MOB zone, driven by fears of a potential 50% EU tariff. With news of a delay/revision, we could see a relief bounce Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Moody’s downgrade sent the dollar to 3-month lows, adding pressure to the macro picture.
Watch for a short-term bounce, but stay cautious—Fed speakers and FOMC minutes this week will shape the next move.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 5/25/2025)
SPX - We got a pullback this week to reset RSI and announcement of possible 50% EU tariff with price action landing at our MOB line $5770 area, As of Sunday, the EU tariff got revised/delayed so we could see a relief by market open on Tuesday.
Next resistance: $5,976 and $6,105
Next support: $5,770, and $5,655
Weekly Sentiment: Coming to Oversold zone
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - It seems like the Moody's Downgrade on the us credit had a huge effect on the us dollar as we start sinking to 3 month lows. With Fed speakers and FOMC minutes this week, we may see some relief as they reinstall confidence.
Next resistance: $101.90
Next support: $97.40
Weekly Sentiment: Oversold
Put to call Ratio: 1.05—>1.19—> 1.49
Next FOMC date: 06/17/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 62—>71—>64 (Under 25 is extreme fear)
BTC:Bitcoin is at oversold zone again, and has busted through all our resistance so far. it has reunited with it's trend of following Gold and inversing the dollar again. If this continues we could see it touch 150k to 200k this year.
Next Major Resistance: 111k
Next Support: 94k and 77k.
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 5/26/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: AGCO, ALB, BAC, BIPC, CADE, CBU, CPK, FCNCA, FFIN, FMBH, GOOG, GOOGL, GRC, IRM, KIM, NPO, NXRT, OBK, PB, PFS, PHG, RNST, UMBF, URI, WBS, WDC, WT
X20: EE, KNTK, OKE, PAA, LILA, WRD, G, HCKT, HSTM, KRYS, LNTH, MESO, OKE, PAGP, MDT, NKE, SBLK. WMK
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
Fiserv, Inc. (NYSE: FI) is a global leader in financial technology and payment solutions. Headquartered in Brookfield, Wisconsin, the company provides services including digital banking, payment processing, merchant acquiring, and core account processing for banks, credit unions, and businesses. Fiserv’s platforms power secure transactions and financial operations for institutions worldwide.
Buy: $159.50
Sell: $169.50
Stoploss: $149.50
Genpact Limited (NYSE: G) is a global professional services firm that delivers digital transformation and business process management solutions. Headquartered in New York City, the company serves clients in industries such as finance, healthcare, consumer goods, and manufacturing. Genpact leverages AI, analytics, and automation to optimize operations and enhance customer experiences.
Buy: $38.75
Sell: $43.75
Stoploss: $33.75
Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is a leading cloud-based software company specializing in customer relationship management (CRM) solutions. Headquartered in San Francisco, California, Salesforce offers tools for sales, marketing, customer service, analytics, and app development. Its platform helps businesses manage customer interactions, streamline operations, and drive growth through AI and automation.
Buy: $274
Sell: $293
Stoploss: $255
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.