DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (June 29th—> July 4th)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors! 🌟
📈 Market Overview: Geopolitics, Economic Data, and Corporate Earnings
This week, markets faced several headwinds, but key trade negotiations, economic reports, and earnings brought some optimism. While oil prices took a hit and retail sales remained weak, investor sentiment was largely buoyed by some positive earnings surprises, particularly in the AI and technology sectors. Here's what moved the markets:
📊 Market Performance:
S&P 500: The benchmark index reached a record high, ending the week up 3.07% with a 5.07% return for June.
Nasdaq: The tech-heavy index posted a strong gain of 5.07% for the month.
DJIA: Rose by 1.67% over the week.
💹 Key Economic Data:
Retail Sales: The May retail sales data showed a slower-than-expected consumer spending pace, reinforcing the concerns about economic softness.
Jobless Claims: Weekly jobless claims continued to rise, suggesting a more fragile labor market.
Inflation: Consumer prices inched higher, with Nike reporting a $1 billion hit due to tariffs, highlighting the ongoing inflationary pressures.
💼 Corporate Earnings and News:
Notable Earnings Reports:
Carnival (CCL): Beat Q2 earnings expectations and raised FY25 EPS guidance, continuing to see strong demand for cruises.
FedEx (FDX): Beat expectations but provided a muted Q1 outlook amid global demand uncertainties and tariff impacts.
General Mills (GIS): Missed estimates, providing a downbeat FY guidance due to weak demand in snacks and baked goods.
Micron (MU): Posted a huge Q3 beat, driven by strong AI demand and record DRAM revenue.
Nike (NKE): Beat Q4 expectations, but noted tariff headwinds, with plans to reduce China sourcing to mitigate future risks.
Other Corporate Highlights:
Amazon (AMZN): Announced an expansion of Same-Day and Next-Day delivery to over 4,000 U.S. cities, aiming to enhance its e-commerce dominance.
Meta (META): In talks to acquire PlayAI, aiming to improve voice AI for its smart glasses and assistant tech.
OpenAI: Expanded its use of Google’s TPU chips, signaling a shift from Nvidia GPUs.
🎯 Top 5 Things to Know This Week:
Trump Tax Bill Deadline: Watch for tariff updates and any potential changes to the tax framework.
U.S. Jobs Report: Focus on job growth, unemployment, and wage trends.
U.S. PMI Surveys: Keep an eye on economic health, with readings due for manufacturing and services.
Tesla Q2 Deliveries: Market expectations around Tesla’s deliveries will provide a snapshot of EV market trends.
4th of July Holiday: Market liquidity may be low as traders adjust for the holiday weekend.
🔮 Looking Ahead:
The Q2 earnings season is shaping up to be a crucial driver for market sentiment, especially with lower earnings revisions. Despite this, AI and technology sectors continue to stand out, benefiting from secular tailwinds in the long term. As always, geopolitical risks and trade tensions remain major factors for investors to monitor closely.
💬 Question of the Week:
How do you think the ongoing trade uncertainties will impact market sentiment and global trade in the coming weeks?
👉 Join the conversation and share your thoughts in Discord!
Stay informed, stay ahead, and enjoy your weekend! 📈🚀
📝 From the Editor
SPX hit all-time highs last week as the conflict with Iran ended quickly after just one week.
This will be a short trading week, with markets closed Friday and an early close Thursday for Independence Day. Historically, this week has been bullish 88.6% of the time.
With SPX and QQQ already at all-time highs, I believe the Dow Jones is next. Expect strong bullish momentum in DIA as it plays catch-up.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 06/29/2025)
SPX - Market hit All time highs last week as the war on IRAN ended after 1 week. This week will be a short week as market is closed on Friday and early close Thursday as we celebrate independence day. 31/35 odds that this week will be very bullish.
Next resistance: $6,125, $6,390
Next support: $6,010, and $5,780
Weekly Sentiment: Overbought
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - If Trump's Tax bill gets pass, it could increase the govt debt by trillions and cause an initial drop on us dollar and bonds.
Next resistance: $99.20 Next support: $97.40 Weekly Sentiment: Oversold
Put to call Ratio: 1.26—> 1.74—>1.71 —>1.23 —>1.36
Next FOMC date: 07/29/2025
Fear & Greed Index (Under 25 is extreme fear): 62—>63—>60—>55 —>65
BTC: With increase govt spending and the tax bill coming out, the dollar index could devalue more, which means inflation may continue to increase, while Gold and BTC could increase as well.
Next Major Resistance: 111k
Next Support: 95k and 77k.
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 6/29/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: ACDC, FDP, GSK, ED, V, ONC, CPRT, MCD
X20: EE, KNTK, OKE, LILA, WRD, HCKT, HSTM, KRYS, LNTH, MESO, OKE, PAGP, MDT, NKE, SBLK, G, CPRT, VERX
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
APLD: Applied Digital Corp. is a technology company, which engages in the provision of development and operation of data centers which provide computing power. It operates through the following segments: Cloud Services Business, HPC Hosting Business, and Data Center Hosting Business. The company was founded by Wesley Carl Cummins and Jason Zhang in May 2001 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.
Buy: $7.50
Sell: $10.75
Stoploss: $5
CPRT: Copart, Inc. engages in the provision of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services. It offers vehicle sellers a full range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the internet through Virtual Bidding Third Generation Internet auction-style sales technology. The firm sells vehicles principally to licensed vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, repair licensees, used vehicle dealers, exporters and at certain locations, and the public. The company's services include online seller access, salvage estimation services, estimating services, end-of-life vehicle processing, virtual insured exchange, transportation services, vehicle inspection stations, on-demand reporting, DMV processing, and vehicle processing programs.
Buy: $45
Sell: $49
Stoploss: $41
Franklin Covey Co. (NYSE: FC) is a global consulting and training company focused on organizational performance improvement. Headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, it provides leadership development, productivity, and education solutions to businesses, government entities, and schools. The company is best known for its "7 Habits of Highly Effective People" programs and other principle-based training offerings.
Buy: $23.00
Sell: $24.75
Stoploss: $21.25
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.