DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Mar 16th—> Mar 21st)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors!
This week, markets continued their post-inauguration slump as economic uncertainty, tariff concerns, and weak corporate guidance weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 pulled back near 5500, while gold topped $3K for the first time, reflecting heightened risk aversion.
The VIX briefly spiked near 30, signaling increased volatility, while inflation data provided a mixed picture. February CPI and PPI readings reassured investors that disinflation is intact, but concerns over growth, consumer sentiment, and corporate outlooks kept pressure on equities.
Here’s what moved the markets this week:
📈 Market Overview
Investor unease deepened as the Trump administration's aggressive tariff rhetoric continued to weigh on sentiment. Economic indicators painted a cautious picture:
Consumer sentiment fell again, with the University of Michigan survey showing a sharp rise in inflation expectations for the second month.
Airlines and major corporations downgraded their Q1 outlooks, citing a combination of trade uncertainty, weaker demand, and external disruptions.
Housing and employment data remained soft, raising concerns about slowing economic momentum.
Despite the bearish tone, Friday’s session saw a sharp reversal as a wave of positive global developments lifted sentiment:
China signaled fresh stimulus measures, possibly as early as next week.
A U.S. government shutdown was averted, with Democrats backing a short-term funding bill.
U.S.-Canada trade tensions eased, following a constructive meeting between Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Ontario Premier Ford.
Germany relaxed its debt brake, allowing for higher spending on defense, infrastructure, and climate initiatives.
Russia showed signs of de-escalation, with President Putin reportedly open to a 30-day ceasefire deal with Ukraine.
These developments fueled a 100+ point rebound in the S&P, while Treasury yields rose ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Futures markets now project a Fed pause until June, when rate cuts could resume.
For the week:
S&P 500: 🔻2.3%
Dow Jones: 🔻3.1%
Nasdaq: 🔻2.4%
📊 Economic & Market Highlights
Volatility surged as the VIX tested 30, though it failed to hold above that level.
Gold surged above $3K, signaling strong demand for safe-haven assets.
U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI) reassured markets that disinflation remains on track.
Treasury yields ticked higher, reflecting shifting Fed expectations.
Chinese stimulus speculation provided a late-week tailwind for global equities.
💼 Corporate Earnings & Market Moves
This week’s corporate news was dominated by tariff concerns and cautious guidance, with several key players lowering expectations:
✈️ Airlines Cut Guidance: Delta, American, Southwest, and JetBlue all slashed their Q1 outlooks, citing weaker demand, weather disruptions, and lower government travel.
🏢 Oracle ($ORCL): Extended the AI/cloud sector pullback after missing earnings estimates, though its $130B backlog provided some reassurance.
👟 Puma: Issued strikingly weak FY25 guidance, citing soft consumer spending and geopolitical risks.
📝 Docusign ($DOCU): Beat expectations, but cautious guidance still sparked a rebound in shares after weeks of declines.
💰 M&A Activity Picked Up:
Radius Recycling landed an $800M deal from Toyota Tsusho America.
Checkpoint Therapeutics received a 66% premium buyout from Sun Pharmaceuticals in a $355M deal.
Redfin ($RDFN) agreed to a $1.8B acquisition by Rocket Companies ($RKT).
🔮 Looking Ahead
All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference next week, as well as Nvidia’s AI-focused GTC Conference:
Fed Rate Decision & Powell’s Remarks
FOMC Dot-Plot Update (Outlook for rate cuts in 2025)
Nvidia ($NVDA) GTC Conference (AI sector catalyst?)
Earnings Spotlight: Nike ($NKE), FedEx ($FDX), Micron ($MU)
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📝 From the Editor
Market sentiment remains fragile, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 21, keeping us firmly in fear territory. On top of that, the Put/Call ratio is at 1.81, a relatively high level that signals elevated hedging activity and potential downside caution.
However, China’s latest stimulus measures could inject some momentum into the markets, particularly in Chinese equities. With fresh liquidity being pumped in, we could see a short-term rally in China-linked stocks, but whether this translates into broader market strength remains to be seen.
With FOMC just around the corner, uncertainty remains high. Stay nimble and watch how sentiment shifts leading into next week.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast
SPX - Based on the data from last week, Rates are expected to hold steady as we don't have Inflation yet, nor is the economy doing "BAD". The fed really have no choice because if they decide to drop rates, it would be signaling recession, and if they increase rates, it means they see inflation.
Based on the chart, we should see recovery unless we go under $5500.
Next resistance: 5,825, and 5,900
Next support: 5,500 followed by 5,250
Weekly Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - FOMC meeting this Wednesday could have an impact on the DXY, Expect to see a move up until Wednesday.
Next resistance: 105.40
Next support: 103.20
Weekly Sentiment: Bullish
Put to call Ratio: 1.35—> 1.84
Next FOMC date: 03/19/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 20—>21 (Under 20 is extreme fear)
BTC: If we reclaimed 85k this week, crypto market could become bullish, and under that, we remain bearish.
Next Major Resistance: 85k and 91k
Next Support: 82k and 74k
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 3/16/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: ADTN, AGNC, AZZ, CTSH, CYBR, EGP, FDUS, FFXDF, GATX, GLAD, GRAL, GWRE, HEINY, HIMS, HOOD, HQY, IRTC, LH, LLYVA, LLYVK, LPLA, MAIN, META, MIDD, NET, NWS, OBK, OKLO, OSIS, PDO, PTLO, RL, SNX, TWLO, WFC, WMT
X20: ACN, ADSK, ALK, BOOT, BURL, CAVA, CCL, CDP, CG, CHH, CNS, CNXN, COHR, DAL, DCOM, DECK, DLR, EVRI, GMS, H, HD, HNI, HROW, LAD, LAMR, LOW, MRVL, MSGS, NBHC, NTAP, NTRS, OMF, OSPN, PB, PEGA, PRCT, PTC, PX, RDNT, RDW, RF, SHAK, TEAM, TRN, TSLA, UHAL, UHS, VCYT, VNO, ZION.
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
DoorDash, Inc. (NASDAQ: DASH) is a U.S.-based technology company that connects consumers with local businesses through its online food ordering and delivery platform. The company's offerings include the DoorDash and Wolt marketplaces, as well as platform services like DoorDash Drive and Storefront, catering to various industries such as restaurants, grocery, and retail.
Buy: $182.25
Sell: $189.25
Stoploss: 175.25
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) is a major U.S. airline headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Operating over 5,400 flights daily, Delta serves more than 300 destinations across 52 countries on six continents. As a founding member of the SkyTeam airline alliance, Delta maintains significant hubs in cities including Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York-JFK, New York-LaGuardia, Salt Lake City, and Seattle.
Buy: $41.50
Sell: $44
Stoploss: $39
NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in premium smart EVs, known for its innovative battery-swapping technology and autonomous driving capabilities. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company offers models like the ES8, ET7, and recently launched ONVO L60 under its new mass-market brand. NIO also operates an extensive charging and battery swap network while expanding globally to compete with Tesla and other EV makers.
Buy: $4.84
Sell: $5.23
Stoploss: $4.45
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.