DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (May 4th—> May 9th)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors!
After a month of tariff whiplash, markets finally found their footing this week. Sentiment improved steadily as the White House continued to soften its tone on trade, dialing back key tariffs and touting progress in bilateral negotiations. Paired with cooler inflation data, strong earnings, and a surprisingly healthy April jobs report, the market staged a powerful rally, lifting all three major indices.
Let’s break down what mattered, what moved, and what’s next. 📊
🌐 Market Overview: From Tariff Trauma to Rally Resurgence
Markets completed a full round trip from the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement:
The White House softened rhetoric, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinting one deal was nearly complete, awaiting only parliamentary ratification abroad.
April’s employment report came in hot, but not too hot—supporting a soft landing narrative.
Inflation data remained moderate, reassuring investors that the Fed still has room to maneuver.
Despite ongoing weakness in regional manufacturing PMIs and a negative Q1 GDP print, early projections for Q2 GDP are robust—above 2%—and investors seem increasingly confident the U.S. can avoid recession.
📉 Abroad, the European economy continues to signal further ECB rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan surprised with a dovish tilt, temporarily pressuring the yen. Traders began to speculate whether Fed Chair Powell could follow suit next week.
🛢️ Meanwhile:
Crude oil fell below $60/barrel—its lowest in nearly a month—as OPEC+ officials hinted at a possible June output hike.
Gold prices retreated further from recent all-time highs.
Treasury yields rose modestly but remained well below de-dollarization highs from early April.
📈 Weekly Market Performance:
S&P 500: +2.9%
Dow Jones: +3.0%
Nasdaq: +3.4%
The S&P notched a 9-session win streak, closing in on 5,700, or ~21x forward earnings.
📊 Key Economic & Policy Themes
Tariff Tone Shift: Trump’s team downplayed earlier hardline messaging, reigniting optimism for bilateral deals.
Fed in Focus: Powell faces rising pressure from both the White House and markets ahead of next week’s FOMC.
Global Central Banks: Dovish pivots from the BOJ and ECB bolster risk appetite abroad.
Energy Prices Slide: Oil weakness highlighted growing supply expectations amid tempered global demand.
💼 Earnings Recap: AI Stays Strong, Retail Shows Strain
🧠 Tech Titans (Mag-7):
Apple ($AAPL): Withdrew Services guidance due to macro uncertainty—weakest report of the group.
Amazon ($AMZN): Strong Q1 beat and bullish Q2 guidance. No signs of tariff-driven demand weakness yet.
Microsoft ($MSFT): Cloud revenue surged 22%. Demand “consistent through April.”
Meta ($META): Crushed expectations and raised capex guidance again to support AI expansion.
💳 Consumer & Retail:
Mastercard ($MA): Solid quarter, but flagged tariff-related sentiment drag.
McDonald’s ($MCD): U.S. same-store sales fell for the first time since 2020. Consumers are “grappling with uncertainty.”
Starbucks ($SBUX): Earnings miss. Margins collapsed. CEO says turnaround is “slowing.”
🛢️ Energy & Industrials:
Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell: All underwhelmed amid oil’s slide. Chevron’s upstream earnings collapsed YoY.
Exxon ($XOM): Warned of refinery supply volatility tied to tariffs.
GM ($GM): Pulled FY guidance citing trade war risks; promptly cut guidance with a $4–5B tariff hit estimate.
🔮 Looking Ahead: What’s on Tap
All eyes now turn to the FOMC, more tech and industrial earnings, and the ongoing global trade chess match.
📅 Key Events Next Week:
📉 Fed Rate Decision & Dot Plot: Will Powell stay patient or pivot dovish?
🎙️ Powell Press Conference: Clarity or confusion on next policy steps?
💻 Earnings:
Tech: AMD, Palantir ($PLTR), SuperMicro ($SMCI), Hims & Hers ($HIMS), Temu-parent PDD ($PDD)
Consumer/Transport: Disney ($DIS), Uber ($UBER), Ford ($F)
📌 Stay Sharp, Stay Ahead
While markets have staged an impressive rebound, the Fed, tariffs, and AI spending remain the key macro levers.
📲 For intraday charts, earnings snapshots, and data breakdowns, don’t forget to check our Trading Corner.
This Week’s Question:
Do you think the Fed will hold steady next week—or will Powell hint at a summer cut? Let us know in Discord or reply here! 🧠
If this recap helped you feel more confident in your strategy, consider sharing it with a friend or fellow investor. The smarter we grow, the stronger we invest. 💡
📝 From the Editor
We got a negative GDP print, which was suppose to signal that the economy is bad, however, that are now spinning the narrative that next quarters GDP print will be higher/better and that recession should be avoided or cancelled.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 5/04/2025)
SPX - GDP came out really bad, but market continued to run because ER has been good. Next thing to watch out for is FOMC data.
Next resistance: $5,805 and $5,880
Next support: $5,480, and $5,100
Weekly Sentiment: Toppy
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY -Typically the dollar weakens after the FED FOMC meeting. Unless Powell talks about rate hikes or keeping it flat for longer. the dollar will probably see weakness again and gold will probably start moving.
Next resistance: $100.70
Next support: $97.40
Weekly Sentiment: Overbought
Put to call Ratio: 1.32—>1.42—> 1.79
Next FOMC date: 05/07/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 21—>35—>43 (Under 25 is extreme fear)
BTC: Bitcoin is still showing a lot of strength, we are now backtesting the trend line support and could move higher again.
Next Major Resistance: 99k and 108k
Next Support: 90k and 75k.
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 5/4/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: AGCO, BAC, BIPC, CADE, CBU, FCNCA, FFIN, FMBH, GOOG, GOOGL, GRC, IRM, KIM, NPO, NXRT, OBK, PB, PFS, PHG, RNST, UMBF, URI, WBS, WDC, WT
X20: EE, KNTK, OKE, PAA, LILA
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
WeRide Inc. (NASDAQ: WRD) is a Chinese autonomous driving technology company that develops self-driving solutions for passenger and commercial vehicles. Its product lineup includes Robotaxis, Robovans, Robobuses, and Robosweepers, as well as advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) for smart mobility and logistics applications.
Buy: $6.75
Sell: $7.50
Stoploss: $6.00
Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) is a U.S.-based specialty chemicals company and one of the world’s largest producers of lithium, used primarily in electric vehicle batteries. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Albemarle also operates in bromine specialties and catalysts, serving industries like energy storage, electronics, and refining.
Buy: $47.25
Sell: $53.00
Stoploss: $41.50
Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) is a global healthcare company based in Denmark, specializing in diabetes care, obesity treatment, and hormone replacement therapies. Its product portfolio includes insulin, GLP-1 receptor agonists like Ozempic and Wegovy, and treatments for rare blood and endocrine disorders. The company operates in more than 80 countries and is a leader in metabolic and chronic disease management.
Buy: $69
Sell: $71.25
Stoploss: $66.25
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.