DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (April 27th—> May 2nd)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors!
Markets experienced a wild post-Easter rebound this week, with investors navigating a volatile blend of renewed trade war fears, Fed independence debates, and a flood of Q1 earnings reports. After an ugly start, sentiment turned sharply higher as whispers of tariff softening and resilient corporate results fueled a strong four-day rally. 📈
Let’s dive into this week’s key moves and what’s coming next. 👇
🌐 Market Overview: Volatility, Victory, and a VIX Retreat
The week opened on a rough note:
No trade deals materialized over the Easter weekend despite White House optimism.
President Trump reignited Fed drama, calling Powell a "major loser" and demanding immediate rate cuts.
Stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar all came under pressure Monday, with the dollar index dropping to a 3-month low and Treasury yields pushing towards 5%.
Markets stabilized sharply on Tuesday:
Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested China tensions could ease soon, boosting risk appetite.
Major U.S. industrials posted strong earnings, helping confidence recover.
Gold prices touched $3,500 before pulling back 3%, raising chatter of a potential top.
By Friday, optimism built as:
President Trump tried to quell Fed firing fears and hinted at potential tariff softening (later walked back by officials).
Hopes grew for imminent trade deals with Japan or South Korea, even as U.S.-China tensions remained icy.
Treasury yields slid, supporting equity multiple expansion back above 20x next year’s earnings.
📈 Weekly Market Performance:
S&P 500: +4.6%
Dow Jones: +2.5%
Nasdaq: +6.7%
📊 Key Economic and Policy Developments
Fed Independence Back in Focus: Trump’s attacks on Powell reintroduced market anxiety over Fed credibility.
Trade Rhetoric Swings: Temporary optimism on Asia trade talks vs. continued stalemate with China.
Treasury Yields: Downtrend continued, underpinning stock strength.
Dollar Pressure: The dollar index remained pinned below 100, reflecting investor unease.
💼 Corporate Earnings & Sector Highlights
Q1 earnings rolled in with tariff impacts now firmly on the radar across sectors:
✈️ Airlines:
American ($AAL), Southwest ($LUV), Alaska Air ($ALK): Posted solid Q1 results but cut guidance citing rising uncertainty.
🥤 Consumer Staples:
PepsiCo ($PEP): Trimmed outlook due to tariff-driven supply chain costs and a more cautious consumer backdrop.
🛡️ Defense & Industrials:
Northrop Grumman ($NOC): Missed Q1 estimates, cut FY guidance amid unexpected startup costs and tariff risks.
Boeing ($BA): Beat expectations, bullish on 737 production despite Chinese order risks.
⚡ Tech & AI:
Alphabet ($GOOGL): Delivered strong beats, raised the dividend, expanded share buybacks, and reaffirmed $75B capex for FY25 — a big win for AI infrastructure bulls.
🚗 Tesla & Musk’s Re-focus:
Tesla ($TSLA): Disastrous quarter, but shares rallied after Elon Musk pledged to shift attention back to his companies and scale back involvement in DOGE.
🔮 Looking Ahead: What’s on the Radar
Markets will continue tracking tariff negotiations, a fresh wave of mega-cap earnings, and key inflation data that could shape Fed expectations.
🧨 U.S.-China Trade War: Is real progress imminent or more brinksmanship ahead?
🖥️ Earnings Highlights:
Tech Titans: Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT), Meta ($META)
Blue Chips: Coca-Cola ($KO), McDonald’s ($MCD), UPS ($UPS), Caterpillar ($CAT), Visa ($V), Robinhood ($HOOD)
🏦 U.S. Jobs Report: Key labor market update for the Fed.
📈 Core PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, critical for rate path expectations.
📌 Stay Sharp, Stay Focused
The market’s recent bounce shows how fragile sentiment remains amid headline-driven volatility.
📲 Make sure to check out our Trading Corner for real-time insights on earnings, macro updates, and strategic positioning.
This Week’s Question:
With megacap tech earnings looming, will Big Tech’s resilience continue to carry the broader market—or will tariff fears finally weigh down the heavyweights?
Reply to this email or drop your take in our Discord community! 🧠
If you’re finding these recaps helpful, forward it to a fellow investor. Let’s grow smarter together!
📝 From the Editor
No real progress on the trade war front this week, keeping uncertainty high. All eyes are now on GDP data later this week.
If GDP meets expectations, it confirms recession risks are still in play.
If GDP beats even the low expectations, it could signal the worst is behind us.
Meanwhile, Google’s earnings showed they plan to continue heavy CAPEX spending, a bullish sign for the future of AI.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 4/27/2025)
SPX - There hasn't been any progress with the Trade war in the last few days But we do have GDP data later this week. If GDP meets expectations then that means recession is still underway, but if GDP is higher than the low expectations then the worse could be over.
Next resistance: $5,572 and $5,830
Next support: $5,100, and $48,50
Weekly Sentiment: Mixed
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - Blackout week for FOMC speakers as they will be meeting on 5/7 to decide on rates. We could see a strong rally on the dollar before the decision, and if they choose to cut rates, the dollar will fall further.
Next resistance: $99.60
Next support: $97.40
Weekly Sentiment: Overbought
Put to call Ratio: 1.32—> 1.42
Next FOMC date: 05/07/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 21—>35 (Under 25 is extreme fear)
BTC: Bitcoin broke over 87k resistance, and we are now approaching the trendline at 93k now. If we break over, we can hit new highs.
Next Major Resistance: 95k and 108k
Next Support: 87.5k and 75k.
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 4/27/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: AORT, BPOP, PLXS, TOWN, TTMI, VCEL, WAT, ALC, AMAL, ARCC, ARES, ARMK, ATEN, ATI, ATR, BDC, BYD, CEG, CPAY, CPF, CWAN, DY, FHI, FLEX, FSS, AUR
X20: AAON, ABBV, ABCB, ACLX, ADSK, AORT, BAP, BPOP, BX, CINF, CMG, CMI, CPAY, ENB, EPD, ET, EXP, EXPE, FTI, FUTU, GOOG, GOOGL, HESM, ITGR, KYN, LPX, MCO, MS, OKE, PAR, PHM, PWP, RGA, RRC, SEIC, SLF, SN, SPGI, TSM, TTMI, UBS, UTHR, VNOM, WTFC, TGT, MRK
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is a global healthcare company headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey, specializing in pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and animal health products. Known for breakthrough treatments in oncology, vaccines, and infectious diseases, Merck’s portfolio includes well-known products like Keytruda and Gardasil. The company focuses heavily on research and development to drive innovation and improve global health outcomes.
Buy: $80.25
Sell: $87.00
Stoploss: $73.50
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) is a leading American aerospace and defense company headquartered in Falls Church, Virginia. It specializes in the development of advanced technologies across sectors like aerospace, defense, space, and cybersecurity. Northrop Grumman serves government and commercial customers, with key programs including autonomous systems, missile defense, and space exploration.
Buy: $442
Sell: $482
Stoploss: $402
Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is a leading U.S.-based technology company specializing in social media, digital advertising, and virtual reality. Headquartered in Menlo Park, California, Meta owns major platforms including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and the VR brand Oculus. The company is heavily investing in building the "metaverse," a virtual shared space that combines augmented and virtual reality technologies.
Buy: $547
Sell: $585.25
Stoploss: $508.75
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.