DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Mar 23rd—> Mar 28th)
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👋 Hello DIY Investors!
Markets bounced back this week after five straight weeks of declines, as investors looked for signs that a bottom may have formed around 5500 on the S&P. Global sentiment also received a boost with Germany’s Bundestag passing major fiscal reforms, propelling the DAX to new all-time highs. But optimism was tempered mid-week as Fed messaging, tariff uncertainty, and signs of economic softness returned to center stage.
Volatility persisted as the tech and discretionary sectors lagged, while safe-haven assets surged. Gold is still very high, while Bitcoin remained under $86K, reflecting persistent investor caution.
📈 Market Overview
Investor sentiment started the week on a more positive note, with many looking for a reversal after recent weakness.
But mid-week volatility returned, driven by Fed updates, disappointing macro data, and lingering tariff concerns.
Global focus also turned to Europe, where Germany passed reforms lifting the debt brake, clearing the way for higher infrastructure and defense spending.
Turkey stock market is collapsing with interest rate 46%.
📉 Meanwhile, U.S. economic readings were soft, and corporate earnings reflected a growing sense of macro uncertainty, as Trump’s tariff strategy and DOGE’s fiscal cuts began to cast a wider shadow on the business outlook.
For the week:
S&P 500: +0.5% (First weekly gain in 5 weeks)
Dow Jones: +1.2%
Nasdaq: +0.2%
🏦 Fed Recap: Cautious Confidence
As expected, the FOMC held interest rates steady, but did announce a reduction in Treasury rolloff caps as part of its QT operations.
Importantly, officials raised inflation forecasts while trimming GDP growth expectations—raising some concern about stagflation risk.
The dot plot showed no change in rate cut projections, with two cuts still expected in 2025.
In the press conference, Chair Powell struck a cautious but reassuring tone, stating the Fed remains patient and data-dependent amid rising uncertainty.
The market responded with a modest rally in equities, and the 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4% as traders priced in a more dovish outlook.
💼 Corporate Highlights
This week’s earnings and corporate news offered a mixed snapshot of the current economic climate:
🔦 Notable Earnings & Developments:
📦 FedEx ($FDX): Missed earnings and lowered guidance, citing clear signs of a slowdown in the U.S. industrial economy.
👟 Nike ($NKE): Beat low expectations, but shares dropped as management cut revenue and margin forecasts.
⚙️ Micron ($MU): Reported strong Q2 results, but soft margin guidance weighed on shares despite solid Q3 outlook.
🛳 Carnival Corp ($CCL): Delivered a strong quarter with record demand but struck a cautious tone on Q2 amid global uncertainty.
🛩 Boeing ($BA): Rallied after securing a major Air Force contract from the Trump administration to build the F-22 successor.
💻 Alphabet ($GOOGL): Made a splash in M&A, acquiring cloud security firm Wiz for $32B, expanding its AI and cybersecurity footprint.
💡 AI & Nvidia in Focus
At the start of the week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at GTC, unveiling ambitious plans for multi-trillion-dollar AI datacenter growth and previewing its next-gen chip set for 2026.
While the vision impressed, broader market anxiety kept tech bulls in check.
📊 Economic Data Recap
Housing Data: Continued to reflect softness as affordability remains a headwind.
Consumer Confidence: Weighed down by inflation expectations and tariff anxiety.
Gold: Hit fresh all-time highs above $3,500, underscoring risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin: Held below $85K, still well off recent highs.
🔮 Looking Ahead
Markets will be watching a fresh batch of earnings, inflation signals, and IPO activity next week:
🗞 Trump Tariff News: Will reciprocal tariffs begin to impact corporate operations more directly?
📈 Core PCE Inflation: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—critical for future rate cut expectations.
🏠 Housing Data: More clues on the health of the real estate market.
💵 Retail Earnings: $GME, $LULU, $DLTR, $CHWY
🚀 CoreWeave ($CRWV) IPO: A closely watched debut in the AI infrastructure space.
📌 Stay Sharp & Keep the Dialogue Going
Want real-time analysis of rate moves, earnings, and economic data? Visit our Trading Corner.
Question for the Community:
With volatility returning and tariff uncertainty building, do you think the Fed will still cut rates in June, or will they need more clarity from the data and D.C.?
Reply or drop your thoughts in Discord—we want to hear from you!
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📝 From the Editor
We’re heading into a tricky stretch. Tariffs are still on track for April 2nd, and economic data continues to tilt bearish. The GDP outlook is slipping deeper into negative territory, and inflation is expected to tick higher in the upcoming prints. One of the more important takeaways from this quarter’s FOMC meeting is the shift in tone—the Fed is showing more caution. While rates were held steady, they quietly announced a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT), signaling concern over tightening financial conditions.
– The DIYWallSt Team
Market Forecast (Updated 3/23/2025)
SPX - The fed moved as expected as week, but they are slowing down on QT while GDP forecasts are showing recession.
Next resistance: 5,700, and 5,770
Next support: 5,605 followed by 5,500
Weekly Sentiment: Overbought
Chart Analysis: TVC:DXY Chart Image by WallSt007
DXY - Turkey's stock market and economy are going through issues and that might fallout into the ECB and the rest of Europe. which might be bullish for our dollar.
Next resistance: 104.80
Next support: 103.20
Weekly Sentiment: Overbought
Put to call Ratio: 1.84—> 1.08
Next FOMC date: 05/07/2025
Fear & Greed Index: 21—>23 (Under 25 is extreme fear)
BTC: If we reclaimed 85k this week, crypto market could become bullish, and under that, we remain bearish.
Next Major Resistance: 85k and 91k
Next Support: 82k and 74k
BTC Chart: BINANCE:BTCUSD Chart Image by WallSt007
Undervalued Stock Watchlist(updated 3/23/2025): Stocks on our radar due to their potential value include: X10: ADTN, AGNC, AZZ, CTSH, CYBR, EGP, FDUS, FFXDF, GATX, GLAD, GRAL, GWRE, HEINY, HIMS, HOOD, HQY, IRTC, LH, LLYVA, LLYVK, LPLA, MAIN, META, MIDD, NET, NWS, OBK, OKLO, OSIS, PDO, PTLO, RL, SNX, TWLO, WFC, WMT, CL
X20: ACN, ADSK, ALK, BOOT, BURL, CAVA, CCL, CDP, CG, CHH, CNS, CNXN, COHR, DAL, DCOM, DECK, DLR, EVRI, GMS, H, HD, HNI, HROW, LAD, LAMR, LOW, MRVL, MSGS, NBHC, NTAP, NTRS, OMF, OSPN, PB, PEGA, PRCT, PTC, PX, RDNT, RDW, RF, SHAK, TEAM, TRN, TSLA, UHAL, UHS, VCYT, VNO, ZION
Swing Trading watchlist: Get a detailed view here.
Weekly Undervalued Stock Picks
Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL) is a leading global consumer products company specializing in the production, distribution, and provision of household, health care, and personal care products. Founded in 1806 and headquartered in New York City, the company's well-known brands include Colgate, Palmolive, and Hill's Pet Nutrition.
Buy: $89.50
Sell: $95.00
Stoploss: 85.00
U-Haul Holding Company (NYSE: UHAL) is a leading American moving and storage operator, offering services such as truck and trailer rentals, self-storage units, and moving supplies. Founded in 1945 and headquartered in Reno, Nevada, U-Haul has established a significant presence across the United States and Canada.
Buy: $61.50
Sell: $64.50
Stoploss: $58.50
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is a Canadian multinational athletic apparel retailer founded in 1998 and headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia. The company specializes in designing, distributing, and retailing technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for yoga, running, training, and other activities.
Buy: $321
Sell: $350
Stoploss: $292
Key Economic & Earnings Events for This Week: We moved this section to our trading corner that’s updated daily. 007ofWallSt Trading Corner
Quick Financial Glossary:
Overbought Sentiment: Imagine a product getting too popular, too fast. This might hint that its popularity could soon fade.
Oversold Market: Think of it as a fantastic product being ignored by many. Chances are, it'll soon catch everyone's eye and gain value.
Support: Picture it as a safety net under a trapeze artist. It's a level where a stock tends to stop falling, based on past performance.
Resistance: Think of this as a ceiling in a room. It's a level that a stock struggles to exceed, based on its history.
SPX (S&P 500 Index): This is like the leaderboard of the American stock market, showing the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It's often used as a thermometer for the overall health of the US stock market and economy.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Imagine it as a scorecard that tells us how strong the US dollar is compared to a basket of other currencies. It's like a report card for the US dollar's value on the global stage.