DIYWallST Recession Proof Investing Dividend Picks (May Edition)
Recession Proof Investing, DIYWallST, Stock Picks, Investment Newsletter, Investing, $BX, Blackstone, $FCX, Freeport-McMoRan
📩 Welcome to the DIYWallST Dividend Investing Newsletter!
Inside, you'll find an attached spreadsheet with key insights, including ideal buy and sell areas for dividend stocks and strategic market insights.
📈 Why Trust DIYWallST?
At DIYWallST, we believe investing should be clear, strategic, and accessible. Our insights are backed by years of experience, deep market research, and a commitment to your financial success. We help you invest with confidence, providing the knowledge and guidance you need to grow your wealth.
💰 Why Invest in Stocks?
The stock market has consistently built wealth over time. While there are ups and downs, long-term investors benefit from market growth. Investing isn’t just about chasing price moves—it’s about owning a piece of strong companies and growing with them.
💵 Why Dividend Stocks?
Dividend stocks offer stability and passive income. Instead of relying solely on stock price gains, you earn steady payouts while your investments grow. Over time, dividends compound, turning into a powerful wealth-building tool—without the high risks of speculative trading.
📊 What’s Inside This Edition?
Each month, we feature:
✔ 1 High-Growth Stock for future potential
✔ 3 Reliable Dividend Stocks for stability & income
This balanced approach offers growth opportunities while ensuring you have a safety net of steady returns.
Market Insights & Rebalance This Month
Rebalance Highlights From April to May:
April surprised everyone—what began as widespread fear over tariffs gave way to an abrupt policy reversal, and stocks ripped higher as if nothing happened. This episode is exactly why we invest with a long-term mindset and stay ready to buy on every dip: you never know when the next fire-sale opportunity will arrive. By picking up quality names cheaply, many of our holdings are now up 50%+—and we’re locking in those gains before month-end.
Looking ahead to May, we’re rotating into businesses poised to thrive amid inflationary pressures, recession-resilience themes, and the ongoing “America First” push.
Portfolio Changes from April to May:
✅ Added: FIVE, AVGX, AZN, CMDT
❌ Sold: FIVE, AVGX, VZ
This rebalance keeps us balanced between locking in short-term profits and positioning for durable, long-term growth.
Blackstone Inc. (BX) is the world’s largest alternative asset manager, overseeing over $1.17 trillion in assets under management (AUM). The firm invests across real estate, private equity, credit, infrastructure, and multi-asset strategies, with a capital-light business model focused on fee-based, recurring revenue.
🟢 Buy Zone: $112.50 🎯 Target: $146.25 🛑 Stop: $78.75 💸 Dividend: 2.79%
HIGHLIGHTS:
Strong Capital Inflows: In Q1 2025, Blackstone recorded $61.6 billion in inflows, the highest in nearly three years. This contributed to $1.17 trillion in total AUM, a 10% increase year-over-year, and $860.1 billion in fee-earning AUM, up 10% YoY.
Distributable Earnings & Dividends: Distributable earnings (DE) for the quarter were $1.41 billion ($1.09 per share). Blackstone declared a $0.93 dividend per share, contributing to $4.05/share in dividends over the last twelve months (LTM).
Segment Performance Highlights:
Private Equity AUM grew 16% YoY to $371 billion, driven by $21.7B in Q1 inflows and 14.1% LTM appreciation.
Credit & Insurance AUM rose 21% YoY to $388.7 billion, with a private credit return of 15.0% LTM.
Real Estate AUM was $320 billion, with modest appreciation in Core+ (+1.2%) and a decline in opportunistic funds (−3.7%).
Dry Powder and Capital Deployment: BX has $177 billion in dry powder, enabling flexibility in investment timing. It deployed $36.4 billion and realized $25.5 billion during Q1, maintaining strong liquidity and capital return activity.
Financial Resilience & Growth Outlook: With $9.8 billion in cash and investments and A+/A+ credit ratings, Blackstone remains well-positioned to grow through volatile markets. The firm also repurchased 3.5 million shares over the LTM and remains focused on long-term compounding across asset classes.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is one of the world’s largest publicly traded copper producers, with significant operations in the U.S., South America, and Indonesia. FCX is a key supplier of copper for infrastructure, electrification, and clean energy technologies.
🟢 Buy Zone: $28.00 🎯 Target: $36.40 🛑 Stop: $19.60 💸 Dividend: 0.82%
HIGHLIGHTS:
Q1 2025 Results & Guidance: FCX reported $5.7 billion in revenue, with 872 million lbs of copper and 128k oz of gold sold. While copper sales exceeded expectations, gold volumes were slightly delayed. The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance of 4.0 billion lbs of copper and 1.6 million oz of gold.
Unit Costs & Profitability: Consolidated unit net cash cost for copper was $2.07/lb, with a 2025 target of $1.50/lb. Strong realized prices—$4.44/lb for copper and $3,072/oz for gold—supported $1.9 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
Indonesia Smelter Ramp-Up: The new Indonesian smelter is on track for full operations by mid-2025, key to Freeport’s long-term strategy. Indonesia delivered the lowest copper costs at $0.64/lb, thanks to by-product credits and scale efficiencies.
U.S. Growth & Policy Tailwinds: FCX is benefiting from premium copper pricing in the U.S. (13% above LME) and could gain from the government’s designation of copper as a critical material. Its U.S. operations make up ~70% of total U.S. refined copper and are central to national energy security goals.
Major Growth Projects: FCX is advancing a robust pipeline, including the Bagdad 2X Expansion (targeting +200–250M lbs/year), El Abra and Lone Star expansions, and leaching innovation projects that aim to unlock 800M lbs/year by 2030. Capex for 2025 is forecasted at $4.4 billion, excluding Indonesia downstream investments.
